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Closing this trade.

For various fundamental and techincal reasons as well as new developments which we are unable to discuss here at this time, we are closing out this trade. More trade opportunities will be posted later.

The following is a continuation of the trade below.

The following picture shows what's been happening with the yen since the last update. Even though the dollar has been becoming stronger against most other major currencies such as the Euro, the CHF, A$, C$, etc., the dollar has been losing ground to yen (and RMB is holding steady). This puts our trade in the profit territory again; for now. We say "for now" here because there could be volatilty and we may lose the profits. How the trade develops from here remains to be seen, but we are comfortable in this zone because we don't have to worry about being "stopped-out" of the trade; a luxury because Swiss Finance Academy initial forecast turns out to be right and trade moved squarely into a profitable territory. Please review your Swiss Finance Academy notes on how to set proper stops.

We will not be moving the stops or targets at this stage. Target is still sub 100 level but subject to change based on overall market.

Incidentally, a lot of other potential trade opportunities are emerging, including in the commodities sector (where Swiss Finance Academy is bullish on agricultural sector for fundamental reasons) and in China as the index there heads to the 2000 level. We have been waiting for that level for a long time, and even though the final resting point for the China index may be 1000 as the bubble continues to burst, there is likely to be a short to medium term bounce from 2000 where there is substantial techincal support. Unfortunately, we can not discuss all our trades here for confidentiality and other reasons, but there will be some good discussion here to keep things educational.

The following is a continuation of the trade below.

The dollar continues to rally and it seems may or may not go beyond 110 or 111 vs. yen. There are many reasons to argue for dollar rally vs. the yen (at least short to medium term). Remember, oil price decline is not a major contributor to this move as both currencies benefit from the recent weaker energy prices. So, why the US dollar rally? First, when a lot of people are on the same side of a trade (e.g. shorting dollar), the opposite (dollar rally) tends to happen. This is also happening in commodities (recently undergoing a correction) and financials (a rally of sorts similar to the dollar's). Riding long term trends is one of the hardest things to do; it's like riding a wild horse or a rodeo bull on a marathon - the beast will try to shake you off on every twist and turn. Dollar was also oversold, so it could be a techincal short/medium term bounce back. There has also been an improvement in the US deficit situation recently. However, fundamentally, dollar continues to be a flawed currency and the banking crisis has not ended in my view. Carry trades are likely to continue to unwind. So you are likely to see a new leg down for the dollar. When? I don't know. The professionals know that a lot of people have stops around 110/111/112. So, the market will try to shake all of the weak hands out before going its way; that's a likely scenerio in my view. It could take hours or it could take months. Again, nobody can predict. One can only ascribe probablities. What's the difference between a 'weak hand' and a prudent one (that has a proper stop loss)? Sometimes just luck, but often experience makes a huge difference as it determines your ability to have stops at the right points, measure market sentiment and changing fundamentals more accurately, adapt and perhaps have a "soft" stop-loss that offers some limited flexibility as you ride the bull. That's the game.

The following is a continuation of the trade below.

The update is that the trade turned favorable in a relatively short time. It is important to remember that not all trades turn profitable, let alone turn so profitable so quickly.

In my view the dollar may decline to 108.00 level, then range for a few days or weeks, before taking another significant leg down. Markets are dynamic and fundamentals as well as techincals can both change.